Protocols for listing threatened species can forecast extinction

Risk-ranking protocols are used widely to classify the conservation status of the world's species. Here we report on the first empirical assessment of their reliability by using a retrospective study of 18 pairs of bird and mammal species (one species extinct and the other extant) with eight different assessors. The performance of individual assessors varied substantially, but performance was improved by incorporating uncertainty in parameter estimates and consensus among the assessors. When this was done, the ranks from the protocols were consistent with the extinction outcome in 70-80% of pairs and there were mismatches in only 10-20% of cases. This performance was similar to the subjective judgements of the assessors after they had estimated the range and population parameters required by the protocols, and better than any single parameter. When used to inform subjective judgement, the protocols therefore offer a means of reducing unpredictable biases that may be associated with expert input and have the advantage of making the logic behind assessments explicit. We conclude that the protocols are useful for forecasting extinctions, although they are prone to some errors that have implications for conservation. Some level of error is to be expected, however, given the influence of chance on extinction. The performance of risk assessment protocols may be improved by providing training in the application of the protocols, incorporating uncertainty in parameter estimates and using consensus among multiple assessors, including some who are experts in the application of the protocols. Continued testing and refinement of the protocols may help to provide better absolute estimates of risk, particularly by re-evaluating how the protocols accommodate missing data.

Hybrid knowledge representation in a blackboard KBS for liquid retaining structure design

This paper highlights the importance of design expertise, for designing liquid retaining structures, including subjective judgments and professional experience. Design of liquid retaining structures has special features different from the others. Being more vulnerable to corrosion problem, they have stringent requirements against serviceability limit state of crack. It is the premise of the study to transferring expert knowledge in a computerized blackboard system. Hybrid knowledge representation schemes, including production rules, object-oriented programming, and procedural methods, are employed to express engineering heuristics and standard design knowledge during the development of the knowledge-based system (KBS) for design of liquid retaining structures. This approach renders it possible to take advantages of the characteristics of each method. The system can provide the user with advice on preliminary design, loading specification, optimized configuration selection and detailed design analysis of liquid retaining structure. It would be beneficial to the field of retaining structure design by focusing on the acquisition and organization of expert knowledge through the development of recent artificial intelligence technology. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An expert system on design of liquid-retaining structures with blackboard architecture

The design of liquid-retaining structures involves many decisions to be made by the designer based on rules of thumb, heuristics, judgement, codes of practice and previous experience. Structural design problems are often ill structured and there is a need to develop programming environments that can incorporate engineering judgement along with algorithmic tools. Recent developments in artificial intelligence have made it possible to develop an expert system that can provide expert advice to the user in the selection of design criteria and design parameters. This paper introduces the development of an expert system in the design of liquid-retaining structures using blackboard architecture. An expert system shell, Visual Rule Studio, is employed to facilitate the development of this prototype system. It is a coupled system combining symbolic processing with traditional numerical processing. The expert system developed is based on British Standards Code of Practice BS8007. Explanations are made to assist inexperienced designers or civil engineering students to learn how to design liquid-retaining structures effectively and sustainably in their design practices. The use of this expert system in disseminating heuristic knowledge and experience to practitioners and engineering students is discussed.

QRT: A Qr-based tridiagonalization algorithm for nonsymmetric matrices

The stable similarity reduction of a nonsymmetric square matrix to tridiagonal form has been a long-standing problem in numerical linear algebra. The biorthogonal Lanczos process is in principle a candidate method for this task, but in practice it is confined to sparse matrices and is restarted periodically because roundoff errors affect its three-term recurrence scheme and degrade the biorthogonality after a few steps. This adds to its vulnerability to serious breakdowns or near-breakdowns, the handling of which involves recovery strategies such as the look-ahead technique, which needs a careful implementation to produce a block-tridiagonal form with unpredictable block sizes. Other candidate methods, geared generally towards full matrices, rely on elementary similarity transformations that are prone to numerical instabilities. Such concomitant difficulties have hampered finding a satisfactory solution to the problem for either sparse or full matrices. This study focuses primarily on full matrices. After outlining earlier tridiagonalization algorithms from within a general framework, we present a new elimination technique combining orthogonal similarity transformations that are stable. We also discuss heuristics to circumvent breakdowns. Applications of this study include eigenvalue calculation and the approximation of matrix functions.

A knowledge-based system for liquid retaining structure design with blackboard architecture

Owing to the high degree of vulnerability of liquid retaining structures to corrosion problems, there are stringent requirements in its design against cracking. In this paper, a prototype knowledge-based system is developed and implemented for the design of liquid retaining structures based on the blackboard architecture. A commercially available expert system shell VISUAL RULE STUDIO working as an ActiveX Designer under the VISUAL BASIC programming environment is employed. Hybrid knowledge representation approach with production rules and procedural methods under object-oriented programming are used to represent the engineering heuristics and design knowledge of this domain. It is demonstrated that the blackboard architecture is capable of integrating different knowledge together in an effective manner. The system is tailored to give advice to users regarding preliminary design, loading specification and optimized configuration selection of this type of structure. An example of application is given to illustrate the capabilities of the prototype system in transferring knowledge on liquid retaining structure to novice engineers. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Economics and psychology in the twenty-first century

This paper begins by exploring four different possible forms of relationship between economics and psychology, which have different connotations in terms of the relative status of the two disciplines. It then focuses on the future for one of these, psychological economics. After setting out the hardcore axioms and positive and negative heuristics of a research programme in psychological economics, it explores institutional and psychological barriers to the success of such a research programme in the context of both research and teaching.

Prioritizing global conservation efforts

One of the most pressing issues facing the global conservation community is how to distribute limited resources between regions identified as priorities for biodiversity conservation(1-3). Approaches such as biodiversity hotspots(4), endemic bird areas(5) and ecoregions(6) are used by international organizations to prioritize conservation efforts globally(7). Although identifying priority regions is an important first step in solving this problem, it does not indicate how limited resources should be allocated between regions. Here we formulate how to allocate optimally conservation resources between regions identified as priorities for conservation - the 'conservation resource allocation problem'. Stochastic dynamic programming is used to find the optimal schedule of resource allocation for small problems but is intractable for large problems owing to the curse of dimensionality(8). We identify two easy- to- use and easy- to- interpret heuristics that closely approximate the optimal solution. We also show the importance of both correctly formulating the problem and using information on how investment returns change through time. Our conservation resource allocation approach can be applied at any spatial scale. We demonstrate the approach with an example of optimal resource allocation among five priority regions in Wallacea and Sundaland, the transition zone between Asia and Australasia.

Extending the theory of Owicki and Gries with asynchronous message passing

We describe an extension of the theory of Owicki and Gries (1976) to a programming language that supports asynchronous message passing based on unconditional send actions and conditional receive actions. The focus is on exploring the fitness of the extension for distributed program derivation. A number of experiments are reported, based on a running example problem, and with the aim of exploring design heuristics and of streamlining derivations and progress arguments.